Based on my recent visit to Belarus and Russia, and ongoing coverage of the media there, here are some observations on political developments in both countries.

One major issue is relations between Russia and the US in the aftermath of the Anchorage summit in August 2025, which has been recognised by both Lavrov and Putin as a deception by the US - not improving relations nor ending the Ukraine war. This was largely because of Putin's mistake in trusting Trump and his entourage, including hostile characters such as Rubio and Bessent. Likewise the attempt to revive economic relations through two shysters, Witkoff and Kushner, who have no diplomatic experience or knowledge of Russia, and the sinister role played by Kirill Dmitriev, who has been denounced as an American asset (he studied at two leading US universities and worked as a senior economist at JP Morgan). The fact that these talks have been conducted in secret is a concern for the prospect of any genuine US-Russia dialogue.

It is said Putin was influenced by a right-wing nationalist, Professor Alexander Dugin, who believed that Trump's survival of a shooting in 2024 was 'an act of god' and advised Putin that a deal with Trump would bring the war to a close. Trump's foreign policy has been proven to be treacherous; one only needs to look at the three summits with North Korea's Kim Jong-Un in 2016. The whole effort was a play by the US to get North Korea to make huge concessions and give up its nuclear deterrent. Now Trump, backed by the entire Washington establishment, plans to weaken Russia, gain access to the Russian economy and break it up, as was the case in the 1990s with the former USSR.

The talks between the US and Russia have not led to anything, and the promise of an ‘Anchorage spirit’ arising from Putin and Trump’s meeting has proven to be nonsense, while the US continues backing Kiev by selling weapons and providing intelligence for attacks deep into Russia. The war is a massively profitable exercise for the US military-industrial complex.

The Russian economy has stood firm against sanctions and exclusion from the US dollar payment system. Through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the extension of the Russian economy to Asia, South America and Africa has helped avoid sanctions, allowing the Russian economy to become self-sufficient in many key areas.

In recent summer weeks, Putin has now realised that despite keeping contacts open, there is no hope of any serious talks with the Trump regime or the current European leaders.

There appeared to be divisions in the Foreign Affairs Ministry between statements made by Lavrov, Ryabkov and Zakharova, and Putin's assessments on ending the war through US mediation. There was also the complete failure of negotiations through Turkey which supplies weapons to Kiev. Lavrov denounced the aggressive US policy of giving help to Kiev, while Putin continued to address the US as a partner. He has admitted naivety in trusting the West even after his 2007 speech in Munich, when he accused NATO of encroaching on Russia. After the 2014 coup in Ukraine, Putin did little to assist the Donbass, and signed up to the two Minsk Treaties, which were later proven to have been deliberately deceptive, providing preparation time for a proxy war against Russia, as Merkel confessed in her autobiography. Putin continued to call Western leaders 'partners', in the almost blind belief that it was possible to enjoy mutually beneficial relations after the demise of the Warsaw Pact. After the break-up of the USSR, all the signs of intervention were there in the 'colour' revolutions, from 2000 through to the coup in Ukraine of 2014, also in Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Chechnya's two wars. In Russia itself, the Navalny ‘anti-corruption’ movement was bankrolled by the UK, Germany and the US to try and build a vibrant opposition to the regime.

The only sign of Putin reacting decisively was after the 2014 coup in Ukraine, by securing the Crimea and the Black Sea Naval base in Sevastopol. The vote to join Russia by Crimea was overwhelming but following this Putin seemed to ignore the Donbass, despite huge votes in referenda there to join Russia. Putin should have known by then that the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements were not worth the paper they were written on. Other talks with Macron and Merkel in the four-sided talks with the Ukraine were pointless. It was only on being warned by foreign intelligence reports that the Ukraine was preparing to attack the Donbass on March 8, 2022, that Putin eventually took action. But, again thinking like a lawyer, he waited for the appeal by the two Donbass peoples’ republics to join Russia and its approval by the Duma before he decided to carry out what was intended to be a swift military exercise to inflict a decisive blow on the Ukraine. The offer of peace talks was made after just one day of military action, and with Russian forces surrounding Kiev, Zelensky accepted the idea of talks, yet Putin made a mistake in accepting pleas from Macron and Scholz to withdraw Russian troops from around Kiev. The history of the talks, first in Minsk, then in Istanbul, led to a possible deal that would resolve the main issues of demilitarisation, non-membership of NATO, respect for Russian-speaking peoples and de-Nazification, and referenda on joining Russia in a long-lasting peace agreement.

Putin’s weakness was evident during the Istanbul peace talks with the release several hundred members of the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, who were captured after the battle for Mariupol in 2022. Later, ignoring an agreement to keep them until after the war, Erdogan released the leaders of the Azov group to Kiev. Among those released were two mercenaries from the UK who had been sentenced to death for murdering civilians. Infamously, Abramovich was filmed serving drinks to the two freed mercenaries on their flight back to the UK.

The political changes in Russia have been very significant, through the realisation in Russia that there were no 'partners' in the West, and that NATO was no more than a war-mongering body determined to break up Russia into smaller states in a continuation of the nineties 'Wild West'. The development of a modern, independent Russia continuing to grow strong economic and political ties with Asia and Africa would be destroyed. A multi-polar world would be gone and in its place there would be one dominated by the US and the EU. Despite his earlier mistakes, Putin has transformed himself into a strong war leader, skilfully working with the oligarchy and the huge patriotic organisations which have emerged in the last four years: the National Front, the Young Guard, and mass humanitarian organisations that help the troops. Although Russia has lost access to Western markets, the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU have misfired, with Russia opening up fresh markets for both energy sales and food supplies. The BRICS group has doubled in membership, and relationships with Africa and Southeast Asia have multiplied. The alliance with China and North Korea has been a key element in political, diplomatic and military help. Relations with both countries are far better now than they were with the former Soviet Union.

The war has brought Russian people together. When I have met ordinary working-class people on my last three visits, they made it clear that they don't necessarily support Putin, but they are patriots and support their troops. This period has coincided with the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, and has helped bring people together. Mass media promote new documentaries about not only Soviet history and the victory over fascism in 1945, but many documents from the archives are being released about the role of Stalin, and of the Soviet leaders who betrayed the Soviet Union (and who recruited them). The old history books for schoolchildren have been thrown out to be replaced by new books with a truthful appraisal of Soviet history, not one promoted by the Soros Foundation. The greatest progress is the spirit of the collective, something that largely disappeared in the 1980s under Gorbachev. It's difficult to see this going away, especially as the front line is moving westwards faster and with the prospect of victory in the war.

One factor which has been in the background is the oligarchy. Putin was told by one of the wealthiest and most influential oligarchs that he was opposed to the war and that it would not end well. Putin ignored his words, and he has managed to get the oligarchy to contribute to weapons production, especially in new industries like drone manufacture, AI, etc.

Ten parties are seeking votes in the Duma election in September, including the CPRF and the Communist Party of Russia (the latter is Marxist-Leninist and opposes revisionism, of which it accuses the CPRF and especially its leader Zyuganov). Yabloko, a pro-Western party which demands an end to the war and the acceptance of Western demands for concessions, has been removed from the ballot because of foreign backing. In polling, the CPRF have risen to over 35% while the ruling United Russia party has lost support, mostly because of widespread corruption. Putin has recruited war veterans to leadership in cities and regions where political loyalty to Putin’s leadership was a factor in local government failures. Two hundred soldiers are standing for election, and it is expected that most will be elected.

The new parliament will be quite different from the former membership, as it will certainly include war veterans and others who have been active in the mass patriotic bodies of the last few years. Other parties are the National Liberal Democratic Party led by the right-wing nationalist Leonid Slutsky; and the left-wing Justice for Russia Party led by the scientist, Sergey Mironov and by Zakhar Prilepin,a leading left writer and journalist. The 1994 Constitution (formulated largely by US State Department officials) forbids 'ideology' and 'censorship' in its statutes, and this formulation hinders political progress, especially for the CPRF, as it has become irrelevant as a revolutionary party. The CPRF thus accepted its role as a left-wing party reduced to raising proposals for new laws on social and economic issues, which it has been very successful in doing in the last Duma. Several left parties have been banned from being on the ballot because of their call for radical changes in society, one being the For a New Socialism Party led by Nikolai Platoshkin (a former Soviet Diplomat and academic under house arrest) and the Left Front, whose leader, Sergei Udaltsov, has been arrested multiple times. Both have very popular podcasts.

Dmitry Medvedev, who has been vocally active as a deputy chair of the Security Council, was often portrayed as a weak liberal President (2008-2012). When he visited the US, he was seen as a rival to Putin, but he did show resolve when Georgia started shelling South Ossetia in 2008. The 'liberal' has since changed into a conservative, and his past actions show him to be lacking real character and political will. Calls by Medvedev for Russia to bomb NATO countries are seen as irresponsible by many people, and his spell as Prime Minister was considered a failure.

The United Russia Party has been exposed as being corrupt, with many who helped break up the Soviet Union switching flags from the CPSU to this neo-liberal coalition of the elites, which claims it has no ideology. It has been challenged for its failure to support families of troops injured or killed in the war, and for corruption in many regions across Russia. Almost every week, news appears of a local government official being arrested for stealing money or failing to fulfil targets. A sign of its declining popular support is the fixing of election processes and getting government workers to back the party publicly.

The CPRF and many others have complained about the ‘catastrophic’ situation in some areas of the country. This relates to deficits in local authority budgets, with overspending on projects and little funding for hospitals, schools and infrastructure.

Lukashenko, president of Belarus since 1994, made significant changes when he took office by halting privatisation, taking back state enterprises, and investing in the economy. He said socialism worked and there was, therefore, no point in scrapping the system. Belarus has a wealthy economy with a highly skilled workforce and has not been affected by the sanctions imposed by the West. The ruling party is an amalgam of two socialist parties, including the Communist Party. Belarus enjoys a Union status with Russia and shares many economic, scientific, military and other projects. Anyone can work in either country without documentation and this applies to education and travel. Belarus adopts an independent foreign policy within the structure of BRICS, the Eurasian Treaty Organisation, and the Collective Security Treaty.

Visiting Belarus for the first time offered surprises. It was almost a trip into the past, with no ‘decommunization’ as was the case in former Soviet republics. Streets, squares, buildings, and monuments dedicated to heroes of the communist world and the former Soviet Union remain respected; streets called Communism Street or statues to the founder of the secret police, Dzerzhinsky and Stalin remain in all their glory. Minsk was razed to the ground during the Second World War and the city had to be completely rebuilt; there are many war memorials. There are many modern buildings, especially sports stadia, concert halls and huge new housing schemes around the city. Public transport is excellent, and generally prices are low for local people, noticeably cheaper than in Russia. Jobs are available, and to handle the deficit in labour, workers travel from other former Soviet republics to fill jobs. Talking to locals, the attempted ‘colour' revolution in 2020 was extremely violent, with the police and troops being victims of people who were recruited by Western NGOs, from nearby Poland and the Ukraine. The degree of violence exhibited by the demonstrators had never been seen before in Minsk. During the Ukraine conflict, Lukashenko has offered opportunities for negotiation and humanitarian help, yet, aware of hostility from NATO, he warned his armed forces in April to prepare for war. Russia has located its latest missile systems in Belarus.